MBS MID-DAY: Low Gas Prices Now Like QE. Here's How That's Helping Us

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

Be warned that the following reduces a complex, multifaceted issue to one of its individual components. It's merely an examination of this one component (and a superficial one at that) and it's effect on today's trading. Oil has been a big deal since it began tanking in late 2014. As rates began to rise in 2015, analysts began suggesting that a rise in oil was partly to blame. Of course, the only way that truly makes sense is to assume oil is rising WITH rates for OTHER reasons as opposed to assuming a rise in oil prices is actually pushing rates higher. Why "of course?" Let's take a look at what happens when prices rise again. Today's Consumer Sentiment numbers tell the story. 88.6 vs 96.0 forecast and a marked increase in inflation expectations. Here's a...(read more)

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Source: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/472264.aspx

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MBS RECAP: Bonds Rally Despite Weak 30yr Auction

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

In recent weeks, we've increasingly discussed the concept of " supply ." This has largely been driven by the ramp up in corporate debt issuance creating excess supply in fixed income markets, resulting in upward pressure on rates. Then, of course, there's the regular old Treasury supply that we see in the form of auctions every other week. This week played host to the more important of the two cycles: 3yr, 10yr, and 30yr maturities. These aren't necessarily more important because 10's are the most widely traded global interest rate benchmark, but rather because the 3 auctions are heavily weighted toward the longer end of the yield curve. One big issue recently is that the corporate debt issuance has also been skewed toward longer maturities--longer than normal anyway...(read more)

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Source: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/472066.aspx

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Purchase Loan Market MIA

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Posted To: MND NewsWire

Lenders originated 1.55 million residential mortgage loans during the first quarter of 2015. The number, includes loan originations for both purchases and refinances of single family homes and condominiums. RealtyTrac, in its U.S. Residential Loan Origination Report, noted that the first quarter originations were down 6 percent from the fourth quarter of 2014 but surpassed activity in Q1 of 2014 by 17 percent. Originations for home purchases numbered 471,822, down 25 percent from the previous quarter and 1 percent higher than a year earlier. There were 1.08 million originations for refinancing, an increase of 6 percent for the quarter and 27 percent compared to the first quarter of 2014. "A dip in interest rates early in the year combined with lowered mortgage insurance premiums for FHA loans...(read more)

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Source: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/05132015_loan_originations.asp

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MBS RECAP: Even With Plenty of Help, Bonds Still Blew It Today

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

No love for bond markets... That's the only possible takeaway after a day where technicals are stacking up in a friendly way, Retail Sales and several other economic reports come in weaker than expected, a 10yr Treasury Refunding Auction absolutely knocks the cover off the ball, yet bond markets STILL manage to end red on the day. Bonds ended red at home and abroad. While the "abroad" story continues to be one of the most compelling factors for domestic bond markets, we were also hit again today with heavy corporate issuance. Recall yesterday that we mentioned the morning rate spike resulted in several large players holding off bringing their deals to market. 10yr yields were 14bps lower this morning, so guess what... Corporate creditors unloaded with another multi-billion dollar day, led by...(read more)

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Source: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/471790.aspx

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More Than Half of Sales Remain All-Cash in Some Markets

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Posted To: MND NewsWire

The influence of cash sales on the residential real estate market continued to decline in February with those sales accounting for 37.9 percent of total home sales. This is still a significant number, before the housing crisis such sales typically made up a quarter of sales, but the percentage has fallen consistently on an annual basis for 26 straight months from its 46.5 percent January 2011 peak. The February figures reported by CoreLogic were down 2.7 percentage points from a year earlier and were 1 point lower than cash sales in January. CoreLogic says due to the seasonality of the housing market comparisons should be made on an annual rather than a monthly basis. The company projects that, at the current rate of decline, the cash sales share will return to the pre-crisis level of 25 percent...(read more)

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Source: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/05132015_corelogic_cash_sales.asp

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MBS RECAP: Pain Continues For Bond Markets; Reasons Remain Frustrating

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

Who can forget this classic quip when asked why rates are higher: "more sellers than buyers?" OK, so maybe that's not so classic, depending on your background, but the point is that it's not too far from the thesis for the current turmoil in bond markets. Granted, if we take the time to devote quite a few more words to the topic, we can talk about how the long term prospects for low US rates have been perpetually dependent on the trajectory of European rates remaining on it's 2014 path, but who has time for all that? Do your business partners and clients raise an eyebrow if you tell them rates are moving higher because of Europe? Is it worth it to explain to them why you're right? No, not at all. It's far easier to say "more sellers than buyers." It has...(read more)

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Source: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/471475.aspx

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