Rates Test Intraday Rally Resistance After Auction. Reprices Reported

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

As we approach 2pm, it is becoming obvious just how much of today's weakness was and was not a factor of an auction concession... In 10's, the following chart hints at the role of a concessionary sell-off. First of all, you'll note that we've not yet broken through the intraday range's midpoint of 3.24. We can also see a few instances of yields resisting moving lower than that in the few hours leading up to the auction and after the auction as well. So to me, the little "mountaintop" sitting above that line on the chart below constitutes the concession. 3.17 is a more serious matter--a long term trendline we'll be watching closely in the coming hours and days to continually assess the possibilities of whether it's year-end factors or actual economic shifts that are driving yields up. Perhaps...(read more)

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