Rents on the Rise: Shadow Inventory a Solution?

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Posted To: MND NewsWire

REIS Inc, an impartial source of commercial real estate data, has confirmed Mortgage News Daily's prediction earlier this year that renters could be facing some substantial rent increases in the year ahead. The firm's quarterly report shows that the vacancy rates for apartments dropped dramatically during the first quarter and rents have begun to rise, albeit slightly, in some parts of the country. According to a Reuter's story , the vacancy rate for apartments fell to 6.2 percent in the first quarter from 6.4 percent in the preceding quarter. This is the largest percentage drop in any quarter since Reis Inc. began tracking the data in 1999. This continues the pattern MND pointed out in January from Census Bureau data showing the rental vacancy rate in the fourth quarter of 2010 was 9.4 percent...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates: Unchanged From Yesterday

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Following yesterday's abrupt move higher, home loan borrowing costs spent the day feeling out their new range. Best-Execution mortgage rates and borrowing costs were unchanged today. For a visual representation of the spike in consumer borrowing costs, take a look at THIS CHART. CURRENT MARKET : The "Best Execution" conventional 30-year fixed mortgage rate has risen to 5.125% after spending an extended period stuck at 4.875%. For those looking to permanently buy down their rate to 5.00%, this quote carries higher closing costs but the upfront fee to permanently buy down your rate to 5.00% is worth it to applicants who plan to keep their new mortgage outstanding for longer than the next 5 years. Ask your loan officer to run a breakeven analysis on any origination points they might require to...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: Support Broken

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: MBS Commentary

MBSonMND : MBS RECAP Open MBSonMND Dashboard FNMA 3.5 93-09 : -0-10 FNMA 4.0 97-21 : -0-10 FNMA 4.5 101-08 : -0-07 FNMA 5.0 104-08 : -0-02 GNMA 3.5 94-13 : -0-09 GNMA 4.0 99-08 : -0-11 GNMA 4.5 102-22 : -0-07 GNMA 5.0 105-22 : -0-04 FHLMC 3.5 93-03 : -0-09 FHLMC 4.0 97-14 : -0-11 FHLMC 4.5 101-02 : -0-07 FHLMC 5.0 104-01 : -0-01 Pricing as of 4:01 PM EST Afternoon Market Updates A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard . 3:33PM : New MBS Commentary Post STREET POLL: Where Will Rates Be Next Year? 3:06PM : Treasuries Hit Their Close Within Support Target 3pm... Time to mark Treasuries for the day. Despite a fairly heavy day of losses, volume has been average to light in 10yr notes and at 3pm yields just bounced at 3.55, 1 bp lower than...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates: Stored Energy Released!

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

After being stuck in the same spot for over a month, home loan borrowing costs shot higher today at their most violent pace since early February. Best-Execution mortgage rates moved up in the process. This is the eventuality to which we've been referring with comments such as: " The risks associated with this range go back to the concept of "stored energy" in the bond market. Think of it this way : the longer the market stays in limbo, the faster rates will travel when the levee breaks and stored energy is released. That means if you are floating when stored energy is released, you are running the risk of losing your current quote." To see just how much costs moved today relative to recent offerings, take a look at the chart we normally post each Friday. It graphs the average origination closing...(read more)

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March Housing Scorecard Reflects Stagnant Marketplace

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Posted To: MND NewsWire

The March edition of the Obama Administration's Housing Scorecard again remarks on the fragility of the U.S. housing market and the need to continue efforts to help homeowners stay in those homes. The Scorecard, issued jointly by the Departments of Treasury and Housing and Urban Development (HUD) is largely a recap of data released by other sources such as the Census Bureau, S&P Case-Schiller , RealtyTrac and the National Association of Realtors. The fragility is demonstrated by a decline in the numbers of both new and existing houses and home prices and an increase in homes available for sale. Sales of new homes totaled 20,800 in February compared to 25,100 in January and existing home sales dropped from 450,000 to 406,700. The number of first-time buyers also declined from 237,500 to...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates: More Drifting in Wrong Direction

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Home loan borrowing costs inched modestly higher today. Best-Execution mortgage rates didn't budge. As noted on several occasions, the broader bond market has generally moved sideways inside a well-defined, yet wide range this year. There have been periods of volatility, but on the whole, directional trends haven't lasted long without a return to the middle of the recent rage. This is why 4.875% has generally prevailed as the conventional Best-Execution 30-year fixed mortgage rate. The risks associated with this range go back to the concept of "stored energy" in the bond market. Think of it this way : the longer the market stays in limbo, the faster rates will travel when the levee breaks and stored energy is released. That means if you are floating when stored energy is released, you are running...(read more)

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Non-Bank Institutions Expand Mortgage Lending Operations; Who Implemented Comp Rules and Who Didn't?; Investor Bulletins

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Posted To: Pipeline Press

Buffalo Springfield wrote, "There's something happening here, what it is ain't exactly clear..." But there is one movement that appears to be clearer, and that is the increase in mortgage lending by non-bank institutions : Non-bankLendingIncrease . "Congressional Republicans are moving aggressively to wind down mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but they face resistance not only from Democrats, but members of their own party who fear rapid elimination of the two entities would destabilize the fragile housing market ." And many in the business would agree. Read more at the Washington Examiner: F&FtoStickAround? And when you had a 25% market share last year of the mortgage market, the opinions that Wells' CEO has on mortgages matters somewhat: StumpfOpines Yes, the US Court of Appeals...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates: Once Again Storing Energy

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

After drifting progressively higher for seven straight sessions, we've finally seen some stabilization and even modest improvements in home loan borrowing costs. We were hoping the release of the Employment Situation Report on Friday might provide the market with a new directional bias, but after a volatile week the only thing confirmed is more indecision and uncertainty. Mortgage rates are essentially trendless with an equal chance at moving higher or lower. Previously we'd mentioned "teetering on a shift..." Little has changed. CURRENT MARKET : The "Best Execution" conventional 30-year fixed mortgage rate is still 4.875%. For those looking to permanently buy down their rate to 4.75%, this quote carries higher closing costs. The upfront fee to permanently buy down your rate to 4.75% is not...(read more)

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L.O. Comp Rules Delayed Five Days. Not a Cruel Joke!

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Posted To: MND NewsWire

HAPPY APRIL FOOL'S DAY! This is not a cruel joke.... From NAMB's website: "The US Court of Appeals has granted a stay on Fed's LO Compensation rule. The hearing will be on April 5th. The RULE IS DELAYED UNTIL THE RESULTS OF THE HEARING . You can access the Court of Appeals order here . This announcement about the delay of the loan originator compensation rule is not an April fool's joke" ------------------------------ National Association of Mortgage Brokers, Appellant National Association of Independent Housing Professionals, Inc., Appellee v. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, et al., Appellees Consolidated with 11-5079 BEFORE : Henderson, Tatel, and Kavanaugh, Circuit Judges O R D E R Upon consideration of the emergency motion for expedited relief and the emergency motion...(read more)

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Reg Z Violations Easily Enforced Under SAFE Act; Comp Plan Recruiting Rush; Shadow Invetory Issue

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Yes, the earlier commentary was the yearly April Fool's edition. But in the "truth is stranger than fiction" category, the U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington granted emergency motions from NAMB and NAIHP which argue the rule unfairly penalize brokers, who won't be able to pay loan officers from consumer-paid fees . "The purpose of this administrative stay is to give the court sufficient opportunity to consider the merits of the motions for emergency relief and should not be construed in any as a ruling on the merits of those motions," the court said in its order yesterday. The Appellate Court stay was granted, and a date of appeal was set for Tuesday, April 5. What lenders actually do with this information remains to be seen , however - you'll have to figure that one out on your own. For example...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: Green Ending

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: MBS Commentary

MBSonMND : MBS RECAP Open MBSonMND Dashboard FNMA 3.5 94-03 : +0-06 FNMA 4.0 98-10 : +0-04 FNMA 4.5 101-22 : +0-03 FNMA 5.0 104-17 : +0-03 GNMA 3.5 95-06 : +0-06 GNMA 4.0 99-31 : +0-05 GNMA 4.5 103-04 : +0-05 GNMA 5.0 106-00 : +0-03 FHLMC 3.5 93-29 : +0-06 FHLMC 4.0 98-04 : +0-04 FHLMC 4.5 101-16 : +0-03 FHLMC 5.0 104-09 : +0-02 Pricing as of 4:02 PM EST Afternoon Market Updates A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard . 4:00PM : Originator Compensation: Still in the Fight READ THIS POST: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/channels/voiceofhousing/205699.aspx 3:53PM : Much Less Data Overall and no Treasury Auctions in the Week Ahead In stark contrast to the week just passed, next week has no auction supply and quite a light schedule of...(read more)

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How Did the Employment Report Impact Mortgage Rates?

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Home loan borrowing costs stayed sideways today after ending a 7-day losing streak on Wednesday. This is important because a high-risk event has just passed: The Employment Situation Report To illustrate the recent behavior of mortgage rates, we offer the chart below. It graphs the average origination closing costs associated with specific mortgage note rates as quoted by the five major mortgage lenders. With respect to the notion of "stored energy" and the "sideways" movement, see how the individual dots that comprise each of the lines are now moving more sideways than up or down versus say, February and the first half of March for instance. If the note rate line is moving up, the closing costs associated with that rate quote are rising. In December, closing costs rose rapidly. Mortgage rates...(read more)

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CoreLogic Estimates Shadow Inventory at 1.8 Million Homes

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Posted To: MND NewsWire

For the second time in less than a week economists have attempted to quantify the amount of shadow inventory currently lurking in the background of the housing market. Shadow inventory is generally defined as the number of distressed homes either on the market or likely to come on the market through foreclosure divided by the rate at which distressed properties are currently selling. The two studies, one conducted by the National Association of Realtors® and the other released by CoreLogic , follow different methodology but arrive at similar conclusions: shadow inventory is substantial, it will take a long time to clear it out, home prices will be pressured downward and it will strain the economy. As of January 2011, CoreLogic estimates shadow inventory to be at 1.8 million houses, which...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates: High-Risk Event Ahead

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

A seven day losing streak was finally put to an end yesterday.... just in time for a high-risk event. The official Employment Situation Report will be released tomorrow morning at 8:30am. This report is a market mover..... CURRENT MARKET : The "Best Execution" conventional 30-year fixed mortgage rate is still 4.875%. For those looking to permanently buy down their rate to 4.75%, this quote carries higher closing costs. The upfront fee to permanently buy down your rate to 4.75% is not worth it to every applicant, we would generally only advise the permanent floatdown if you plan to keep your new mortgage outstanding for longer than the next 10 years. Ask your loan officer to run a breakeven analysis on any origination points they might require to cover permanent float down fees. On FHA/VA 30...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: Reprices Reported After Auction

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: MBS Commentary

MBSonMND : MBS RECAP Open MBSonMND Dashboard FNMA 3.5 94-06 : +0-15 FNMA 4.0 98-13 : +0-14 FNMA 4.5 101-25 : +0-10 FNMA 5.0 104-21 : +0-10 GNMA 3.5 95-09 : +0-16 GNMA 4.0 100-01 : +0-15 GNMA 4.5 103-07 : +0-11 GNMA 5.0 106-02 : +0-10 FHLMC 3.5 94-00 : +0-15 FHLMC 4.0 98-07 : +0-14 FHLMC 4.5 101-19 : +0-09 FHLMC 5.0 104-14 : +0-10 Pricing as of 4:02 PM EST Afternoon Market Updates A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard . 2:46PM : ALERT: Bonds Break Post-Auction Bear Trend. Reprice Risk Reverses Following the auction, 10yr notes moved diagonally toward higher rates. Yields formed a triangle with higher lows and lower highs centered on the mid 3.47's. It was the bearish resistance trendline that broke first, and since that break, yields...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates: Losing Streak Barely Broken

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

After SEVEN consecutive days of marginal increases, home loan borrowing costs finally stabilized today. This does not necessarily mean that costs are headed lower, it only implies they're "leveling off" as a high-risk event approaches on Friday in the form of the Employment Situation Report. CURRENT MARKET : The "Best Execution" conventional 30-year fixed mortgage rate is still 4.875%. For those looking to permanently buy down their rate to 4.75%, this quote carries higher closing costs. The upfront fee to permanently buy down your rate to 4.75% is not worth it to every applicant, we would generally only advise the permanent floatdown if you plan to keep your new mortgage outstanding for longer than the next 10 years. Ask your loan officer to run a breakeven analysis on any origination points...(read more)

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Case-Shiller: Home Price Double-Dip Materializing

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Posted To: MND NewsWire

The January S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Indices , released by Standard & Poor's this morning, show further deceleration in the growth rates of home prices in most of the cities in the survey. The indices, which are billed by S&P as the leading measure of U.S. home prices, are constructed to track the price path of typical single-family homes in a number of metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). The study uses matched price pairs of individual houses to construct a 20-City Composite Index and a 10-City Composite Index which are updated monthly. The indices have a base value of 100 which was set in January 2000. Thus a current index value of 150 indicates there has been a 50% appreciation since that date for a typical home in the subject market. The 10-City Composite was down 2.0...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates: Seven Day Skid

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Home loan borrowing costs drifted marginally higher for the seventh consecutive session today. The trend is not your friend! HERE is a chart. CURRENT MARKET : The "Best Execution" conventional 30-year fixed mortgage rate is still 4.875%. For those looking to permanently buy down their rate to 4.75%, this quote carries higher closing costs. The upfront fee to permanently buy down your rate to 4.75% is not worth it to every applicant, we would generally only advise the permanent floatdown if you plan to keep your new mortgage outstanding for longer than the next 10 years. Ask your loan officer to run a breakeven analysis on any origination points they might require to cover permanent float down fees. On FHA/VA 30 year fixed "Best Execution" is 4.75%. 15 year fixed conventional loans are best...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates: Trend Not a Friend

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

After hitting 2011 lows on a steady "flight to safety", home loan borrowing costs have drifted incrementally higher in six of the last six trading sessions. The week ahead carries the potential for the broader bond market to confirm a potentially fence-sitter unfriendly technical shift from bullish to bearish. It hasn't been noticeable on the surface because borrowing costs have been inching higher over the past few days, but thin margins are starting to add up and it's making us more nervous about a jump in "Best Execution" mortgage rates. This move has yet to be confirmed but we're definitely teetering on a shift... CURRENT MARKET : The "Best Execution" conventional 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 4.875%. For those looking to permanently buy down their rate to 4.75%, this quote carries higher...(read more)

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Pending Home Sales Up 2.1 Percent in February

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Posted To: MND NewsWire

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released its February Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI). The index is a leading indicator for the housing sector; it measures sales activity based on sales of single-family homes, coops and condos where contracts have been signed but the transactions have not closed. According to the data , pending home sales increased in February but with notable regional variations. The national Index rose 2.1 percent to 90.8 in February compared to 88.9 in January. This, however, is a drop of 8.2 percent from the Index figures in February 2010. Data comes from a large national sample which represents about 20 percent of existing-home sale transactions. The index is derived from a base of 100 representing the average level of contract activity during 2001, the...(read more)

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Case-Shiller Survey: Home Prices Likely Heading Lower

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Posted To: MND NewsWire

The country is on the verge of a double-dip in housing prices according to new survey from MacroMarkets LLC . The financial technology company asked a panel of 111 economists, real estate experts, investment and market strategists to project the path of housing prices over the next five years based on the S&P/Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index. Robert Shiller, MacroMarket's cofounder and chief economist said panelists' sentiments regarding the housing market continue to deteriorate. "Now they are expecting only a weak recovery and even that is not until 2013." Shiller blamed the outlook on market fundamentals; high unemployment, high inventory, and continuing foreclosures and tight credit. Terry Loebs, MacroMarkets managing director said that overall, the March expectations data...(read more)

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The Day Ahead: GDP Revision, Consumer Sentiment, Fed Speak

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Equities rose and Treasuries backed up yesterday despite a backdrop of weak housing data, poor durable goods orders, the likelihood of another European bail-out, riots and war in the middle-east, and spreading radiation fears in Japan. The benchmark 10-year note traded off yesterday's yield highs last night in below average volume. 10s are currently +6/32 at 101-31+ yielding 3.387% after briefly breaching 3.40% support yesterday afternoon. The FNCL 4.5 is +4/32 at 101-29. The secondary market current coupon is -1.5bps at 4.154%. Yield spreads are slightly wider on the open. Rates are lower even as global equity markets gain ground. The NIKKEI was up 1.07%. The SHANGHAI closed 1.06% better. Ahead of the third revision to Q4 2010 GDP numbers, S&P fuures are +2.75 at 1308.25. The dollar index...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: 3/25/2011

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: MBS Commentary

MBSonMND : MBS RECAP Open MBSonMND Dashboard FNMA 3.5 94-05 : -0-06 FNMA 4.0 98-11 : -0-05 FNMA 4.5 101-23 : -0-03 FNMA 5.0 104-19 : +0-01 GNMA 3.5 95-07 : -0-06 GNMA 4.0 99-27 : -0-05 GNMA 4.5 103-02 : -0-03 GNMA 5.0 105-31 : +0-02 FHLMC 3.5 93-30 : -0-05 FHLMC 4.0 98-06 : -0-05 FHLMC 4.5 101-18 : -0-03 FHLMC 5.0 104-11 : +0-01 Pricing as of 4:00 PM EST Afternoon Market Updates A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard . 3:38PM : Stabilization Confirmed, MBS Still Outperform The 101-20 technical line of defense mentioned in the last update as well as in the Rates Techs post from Monday continued to hold and give way to stabilization in the fairly steep losses between noon and 2pm. The coinciding 10yr yields are near 3.45, and as volume...(read more)

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Rate Techs: Key Support Broken. Auction Supply Ahead

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: MBS Commentary

"DURATION DRIFT IN THE NEW YEAR" That was the first thing I posted on my FB page as the clock ticked past midnight on 1.1.11. What it means is I expected volatile interest rate activity in 2011. The world is sensitive to many issues. Especially money, politics and religion. So from where I was sitting at the moment, it made sense to expect the unexpected in '11. Case and Point : THE HORRIBLENESS OF JAPAN'S LATEST ROADBLOCK TO RECOVERY. The entire situation is stomach-turning. Atrocities aside, the event still took place. And the flight to safety that followed definitely led interest rates lower, but now we're backing up. Duration is drifting longer.... After stagnating near key inflection levels for what felt like an eternity, the 10 year Treasury note has broken through a cluster of support...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates: Unfriendly Shift Potentially in Process

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Home loan borrowing costs moved incrementally higher this week. There is reason to be concerned about this directional drift.... Although today's increased costs are not out of line with the rest of the week, the broader bond market is potentially undergoing a technical shift . It hasn't been noticeable from a primary mortgage market perspective because borrowing costs have slowly drifted higher with little motivation over the past week, but thin margins are adding up and we're getting more nervous about a technical shift in the secondary market that could lead to an unfriendly jump in "Best Execution" mortgage rates. Plain and Simple : Mortgage rates have been drifting sort of listlessly in the wrong direction for the past week. Trading technicals suggest "listless" may now be changing to...(read more)

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