MBS Week Ahead: Total Agreement on Where Rates are Headed?

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

I remember when I used to think that certain super smart, well-connected, high-powered traders actually knew where rates would be heading with better than 50% probability. I used to think that even the savviest analyst-types would know better than a magic 8-ball. You tend to hear a lot of retrospective commentary from people when they were right about a call in the past, but only the best prognosticators give equal treatment to their failures. What makes them the best? It's certainly not about being right more than wrong. It's more about being right or wrong in a thoughtful and adaptive way, understanding victories and defeats, and applying logical takeaways. For instance, if someone who makes predictions is typically wrong, yet in such a way that you had an opportunity to evaluate...(read more)

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Source: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/520379.aspx

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