NFP PREVIEW: Another Chance to Break the Range

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

The 4.875 sweet spot on C30 rate sheets didn't really changed much when benchmarks traded between 3.3 and 3.50. But outside those marks (3.56 is an outer limit), it's a different story. The best execution 30 year fixed mortgage rate has moved up to 5.00%. What we're looking at tomorrow is an "either/or" test for the bond market that could result in the duration shift we've been talking about so much recently. Unlike the previous NFP, this time around, we're testing to either stay inside the recent range or confirm a break out in the wrong direction. If today's little foray over 3.5 is confirmed tomorrow, then the next technical target is around 3.70, and that could happen quickly. Historical examples where the sort of range-bind we've been in have acted as true "bear flags" almost always have...(read more)

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