Mortgage Rates: High-Risk Event Ahead

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

A seven day losing streak was finally put to an end yesterday.... just in time for a high-risk event. The official Employment Situation Report will be released tomorrow morning at 8:30am. This report is a market mover..... CURRENT MARKET : The "Best Execution" conventional 30-year fixed mortgage rate is still 4.875%. For those looking to permanently buy down their rate to 4.75%, this quote carries higher closing costs. The upfront fee to permanently buy down your rate to 4.75% is not worth it to every applicant, we would generally only advise the permanent floatdown if you plan to keep your new mortgage outstanding for longer than the next 10 years. Ask your loan officer to run a breakeven analysis on any origination points they might require to cover permanent float down fees. On FHA/VA 30...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: Reprices Reported After Auction

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: MBS Commentary

MBSonMND : MBS RECAP Open MBSonMND Dashboard FNMA 3.5 94-06 : +0-15 FNMA 4.0 98-13 : +0-14 FNMA 4.5 101-25 : +0-10 FNMA 5.0 104-21 : +0-10 GNMA 3.5 95-09 : +0-16 GNMA 4.0 100-01 : +0-15 GNMA 4.5 103-07 : +0-11 GNMA 5.0 106-02 : +0-10 FHLMC 3.5 94-00 : +0-15 FHLMC 4.0 98-07 : +0-14 FHLMC 4.5 101-19 : +0-09 FHLMC 5.0 104-14 : +0-10 Pricing as of 4:02 PM EST Afternoon Market Updates A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard . 2:46PM : ALERT: Bonds Break Post-Auction Bear Trend. Reprice Risk Reverses Following the auction, 10yr notes moved diagonally toward higher rates. Yields formed a triangle with higher lows and lower highs centered on the mid 3.47's. It was the bearish resistance trendline that broke first, and since that break, yields...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates: Losing Streak Barely Broken

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

After SEVEN consecutive days of marginal increases, home loan borrowing costs finally stabilized today. This does not necessarily mean that costs are headed lower, it only implies they're "leveling off" as a high-risk event approaches on Friday in the form of the Employment Situation Report. CURRENT MARKET : The "Best Execution" conventional 30-year fixed mortgage rate is still 4.875%. For those looking to permanently buy down their rate to 4.75%, this quote carries higher closing costs. The upfront fee to permanently buy down your rate to 4.75% is not worth it to every applicant, we would generally only advise the permanent floatdown if you plan to keep your new mortgage outstanding for longer than the next 10 years. Ask your loan officer to run a breakeven analysis on any origination points...(read more)

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Case-Shiller: Home Price Double-Dip Materializing

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Posted To: MND NewsWire

The January S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Indices , released by Standard & Poor's this morning, show further deceleration in the growth rates of home prices in most of the cities in the survey. The indices, which are billed by S&P as the leading measure of U.S. home prices, are constructed to track the price path of typical single-family homes in a number of metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). The study uses matched price pairs of individual houses to construct a 20-City Composite Index and a 10-City Composite Index which are updated monthly. The indices have a base value of 100 which was set in January 2000. Thus a current index value of 150 indicates there has been a 50% appreciation since that date for a typical home in the subject market. The 10-City Composite was down 2.0...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates: Seven Day Skid

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Home loan borrowing costs drifted marginally higher for the seventh consecutive session today. The trend is not your friend! HERE is a chart. CURRENT MARKET : The "Best Execution" conventional 30-year fixed mortgage rate is still 4.875%. For those looking to permanently buy down their rate to 4.75%, this quote carries higher closing costs. The upfront fee to permanently buy down your rate to 4.75% is not worth it to every applicant, we would generally only advise the permanent floatdown if you plan to keep your new mortgage outstanding for longer than the next 10 years. Ask your loan officer to run a breakeven analysis on any origination points they might require to cover permanent float down fees. On FHA/VA 30 year fixed "Best Execution" is 4.75%. 15 year fixed conventional loans are best...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates: Trend Not a Friend

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

After hitting 2011 lows on a steady "flight to safety", home loan borrowing costs have drifted incrementally higher in six of the last six trading sessions. The week ahead carries the potential for the broader bond market to confirm a potentially fence-sitter unfriendly technical shift from bullish to bearish. It hasn't been noticeable on the surface because borrowing costs have been inching higher over the past few days, but thin margins are starting to add up and it's making us more nervous about a jump in "Best Execution" mortgage rates. This move has yet to be confirmed but we're definitely teetering on a shift... CURRENT MARKET : The "Best Execution" conventional 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 4.875%. For those looking to permanently buy down their rate to 4.75%, this quote carries higher...(read more)

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Pending Home Sales Up 2.1 Percent in February

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Posted To: MND NewsWire

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released its February Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI). The index is a leading indicator for the housing sector; it measures sales activity based on sales of single-family homes, coops and condos where contracts have been signed but the transactions have not closed. According to the data , pending home sales increased in February but with notable regional variations. The national Index rose 2.1 percent to 90.8 in February compared to 88.9 in January. This, however, is a drop of 8.2 percent from the Index figures in February 2010. Data comes from a large national sample which represents about 20 percent of existing-home sale transactions. The index is derived from a base of 100 representing the average level of contract activity during 2001, the...(read more)

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Case-Shiller Survey: Home Prices Likely Heading Lower

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Posted To: MND NewsWire

The country is on the verge of a double-dip in housing prices according to new survey from MacroMarkets LLC . The financial technology company asked a panel of 111 economists, real estate experts, investment and market strategists to project the path of housing prices over the next five years based on the S&P/Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index. Robert Shiller, MacroMarket's cofounder and chief economist said panelists' sentiments regarding the housing market continue to deteriorate. "Now they are expecting only a weak recovery and even that is not until 2013." Shiller blamed the outlook on market fundamentals; high unemployment, high inventory, and continuing foreclosures and tight credit. Terry Loebs, MacroMarkets managing director said that overall, the March expectations data...(read more)

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The Day Ahead: GDP Revision, Consumer Sentiment, Fed Speak

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Equities rose and Treasuries backed up yesterday despite a backdrop of weak housing data, poor durable goods orders, the likelihood of another European bail-out, riots and war in the middle-east, and spreading radiation fears in Japan. The benchmark 10-year note traded off yesterday's yield highs last night in below average volume. 10s are currently +6/32 at 101-31+ yielding 3.387% after briefly breaching 3.40% support yesterday afternoon. The FNCL 4.5 is +4/32 at 101-29. The secondary market current coupon is -1.5bps at 4.154%. Yield spreads are slightly wider on the open. Rates are lower even as global equity markets gain ground. The NIKKEI was up 1.07%. The SHANGHAI closed 1.06% better. Ahead of the third revision to Q4 2010 GDP numbers, S&P fuures are +2.75 at 1308.25. The dollar index...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: 3/25/2011

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: MBS Commentary

MBSonMND : MBS RECAP Open MBSonMND Dashboard FNMA 3.5 94-05 : -0-06 FNMA 4.0 98-11 : -0-05 FNMA 4.5 101-23 : -0-03 FNMA 5.0 104-19 : +0-01 GNMA 3.5 95-07 : -0-06 GNMA 4.0 99-27 : -0-05 GNMA 4.5 103-02 : -0-03 GNMA 5.0 105-31 : +0-02 FHLMC 3.5 93-30 : -0-05 FHLMC 4.0 98-06 : -0-05 FHLMC 4.5 101-18 : -0-03 FHLMC 5.0 104-11 : +0-01 Pricing as of 4:00 PM EST Afternoon Market Updates A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard . 3:38PM : Stabilization Confirmed, MBS Still Outperform The 101-20 technical line of defense mentioned in the last update as well as in the Rates Techs post from Monday continued to hold and give way to stabilization in the fairly steep losses between noon and 2pm. The coinciding 10yr yields are near 3.45, and as volume...(read more)

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Rate Techs: Key Support Broken. Auction Supply Ahead

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: MBS Commentary

"DURATION DRIFT IN THE NEW YEAR" That was the first thing I posted on my FB page as the clock ticked past midnight on 1.1.11. What it means is I expected volatile interest rate activity in 2011. The world is sensitive to many issues. Especially money, politics and religion. So from where I was sitting at the moment, it made sense to expect the unexpected in '11. Case and Point : THE HORRIBLENESS OF JAPAN'S LATEST ROADBLOCK TO RECOVERY. The entire situation is stomach-turning. Atrocities aside, the event still took place. And the flight to safety that followed definitely led interest rates lower, but now we're backing up. Duration is drifting longer.... After stagnating near key inflection levels for what felt like an eternity, the 10 year Treasury note has broken through a cluster of support...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates: Unfriendly Shift Potentially in Process

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Home loan borrowing costs moved incrementally higher this week. There is reason to be concerned about this directional drift.... Although today's increased costs are not out of line with the rest of the week, the broader bond market is potentially undergoing a technical shift . It hasn't been noticeable from a primary mortgage market perspective because borrowing costs have slowly drifted higher with little motivation over the past week, but thin margins are adding up and we're getting more nervous about a technical shift in the secondary market that could lead to an unfriendly jump in "Best Execution" mortgage rates. Plain and Simple : Mortgage rates have been drifting sort of listlessly in the wrong direction for the past week. Trading technicals suggest "listless" may now be changing to...(read more)

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Cash for Keys: Paying Delinquent Borrowers to Vacate Homes; MLO Compensation in Australia; FBI Joins MBA to Fight Mortgage Fraud

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Overheard at work: "AT&T to wed T-Mobile. Following the ceremony, there will be no reception." Hopefully there is reception in rural areas - like Detroit. The Census Bureau has also been releasing the 2010 population counts for various states, including Michigan. Columbus and Indianapolis's populations rose. Nearby Chicago's population declined by almost 7% and Cleveland's dropped by about 17%. But Detroit lost a quarter of its population over the last ten years . 25%! Detroit now has the same population that it had in 1910, before the auto industry boom. "Now's not the time to look in the rear view mirror," said Robert Ficano, the Executive for Wayne County, home of Detroit. I think that I will frame that quote . In addition, the U.S. Census Bureau reports that state government tax collections...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates: Thin Margins Starting to Stack Up

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

From where you sit there appears to be little volatility in mortgage rates. Today was the FIFTH consecutive session where loan pricing either remained the same or worsened by a thin margin. We've been stuck in a "directional drift". Economic data and headline news events have done very little to motivate investors. Many market players seem to be waiting on the sidelines in preparation for their next move. All this makes it hard to communicate a sense of urgency but .... Those thin margins are starting to stack up. We're drifting in the wrong direction! CURRENT MARKET : The "Best Execution" conventional 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 4.875% after falling to 4.75% briefly last Wednesday (not universally, but in some cases). For those looking to permanently buy down their rate to 4.75%, this quote...(read more)

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Freddie Mac Rules Out MERS Foreclosures

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Posted To: MND NewsWire

Effective April 1, servicers managing Freddie Mac loans will no longer be allowed to foreclose on properties in the name of Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems (MERS). This was one of a several changes announced yesterday by Freddie Mac through Single-Family Seller/Servicer Guide Bulletin 2011-5 . According to the directive, Freddie has "eliminated the option for the foreclosure counsel or trustee to conduct a foreclosure in the name of MERS. Effective for Mortgages registered with MERS that are referred to foreclosure on or after April 1, 2011, Servicers must prepare an assignment of the Security Instrument from MERS to the Servicer and instruct the foreclosure counsel or trustee to foreclose in the Servicer’s name and take title in Freddie Mac's name." In states where required...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates: Complete Stagnation

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

After looking like they might improve this morning, home loan borrowing costs ended the day unchanged, making today the FIFTH consecutive session where loan pricing has remained the same or worsened by a thin margin. It’s like Groundhog Day in the bond market. Today’s economic data and news headlines did very little to motivate investors. Many market players seem to be waiting on the sidelines in preparation for their next move. We’re hoping to see some semblance of activity in the last two days of the week . Since the environment has been so similar from day to day, so too is our guidance. CURRENT MARKET : The "Best Execution" conventional 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 4.875% after falling to 4.75% briefly last Wednesday (not universally, but in some cases). For those looking...(read more)

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FDIC to Propose "Qualified Residential Mortgage" Definition

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Posted To: MND NewsWire

The debate over what counts as a "Qualified Residential Mortgage (QRM)" may be coming to an end in the near future. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has scheduled a meeting of its Board of Directors for next Tuesday to vote on the issue. A draft of the proposed rule will be made available to the public at that time. QRMs are home loans that will be exempt from the requirement that mortgage lenders retain a 5 percent share of each loan they originate that is packaged for securitization - keeping so-called "skin in the game." Dodd-Frank specifically identified loans guaranteed or originated by FHA, VA, and USDA as qualified for exemption but left other products, including loans written by Fannie and Freddie, up to federal regulators to determine. Glen Corso, managing director...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates: Costs Creep Higher

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Home loan borrowing costs moved slightly higher today. This is the fourth consecutive session where loan pricing has worsened by a thin margin. Best-execution mortgage rates were once again unchanged. Today was not only light on the type of economic data that can move markets, but also on the breaking news headlines that have been dictating the direction of mortgage rates recently. Trading activity was low, as were overall price shifts in the Secondary Mortgage Market. Still, mortgage-backed securities prices were slightly lower on the day, resulting in slightly higher consumer borrowing costs. CURRENT MARKET : The "Best Execution" conventional 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 4.875% after falling to 4.75% briefly last Wednesday (not universally, but in some cases). For those looking to permanently...(read more)

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Rate Techs: Teetering on a Directional Shift

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Headline news and crisis scenarios have been the market's primary directional motivation for most of March. With exception to the Fed's proclamation that our economic recovery may be on "firmer footing", negative events have dominated the news flow. Bond yields and mortgage rates have benefited from a flight to safety as a result. These are just "Big Picture" directional observations though, we can't forget the technical inflection levels that dictated the speed and extent to which bonds rallied over the past month. Investors are now retesting these price/yield pivots to confirm a shift in directional bias. Let's take a look at where we stand at the moment... The April FNCL 4.5 MBS coupon recently topped out near 102-25. If you're wondering about the significance of this price level, you don...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates: What's Next?

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Home loan borrowing costs got slightly more expensive today. Best-execution mortgage rates were unchanged though. News today that Treasury would begin selling its Mortgage-Backed-Security holdings took what was already a moderately weak morning and made it even weaker. This is indicative of the challenges ahead this week. Volatility notwithstanding, consumer borrowing costs could increase more before we find out if the rates recovery will continue. CURRENT MARKET : The "Best Execution" conventional 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 4.875% after falling to 4.75% briefly last Wednesday (not universally, but in some cases). For those looking to permanently buy down their rate to 4.75%, this quote carries higher closing costs but given the recent availability of 4.75% as a Best Execution rate, these...(read more)

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Treasury to Sell MBS Holdings. Minimal Shock Expected

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced that it will begin the orderly wind down of its remaining portfolio of $142 billion in agency-guaranteed mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Excerpts from the Presser... Starting this month,Treasury plans to sell up to $10 billion in agency-guaranteed MBS per month, subject to market conditions. At the end of each month, Treasury will post on its website the total agency-guaranteed MBS sales it has made, broken down by coupon and agency. “We’re continuing to wind down the emergency programs that were put in place in 2008 and 2009 to help restore market stability, and the sale of these securities is consistent with that effort,” said Mary J. Miller, Assistant Secretary for Financial Markets. “We will exit this investment...(read more)

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Alt-A Products Await a Return; Loan Servicers Fuming; Renting vs. Owning; Big Banks Get Bigger; Originator Overtime Lawsuit

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Pipeline Press

What promises to be almost as impressive as all the underwater borrowers making their payments, watch out for that moon tomorrow night : LunarDisplay What does Chase think about a U.S. proposal to exempt certain mortgages from rules governing securitized loans? That it may unintentionally help the biggest banks. QRM When speaking to various groups lately I have been asked, "When will Alt-A come back?" It is a legitimate question. Many originators fondly remember the days of companies like Thornburg or Headlands. There is little doubt that the market will come back, it is "merely" a question of squaring away the A-paper market and then finding out demand at what yield relative to A-paper/agency product? For the product originated in previous years, within the prime and Alt-A sector, traders...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates: Back To "Stuck" Again

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates worsened today. The level of panic lessened overnight in Japan, and despite several somewhat alarming headlines, the overall panic in the markets was not on par with that seen yesterday and the day before. The situation seemed dire enough for bond markets to move to territory that allowed an exploratory run of a 4.75% Best Execution rate yesterday, but on today's moderation, we're right back to the long-standing "stuck spot" at 4.875. In short, markets began to reverse some of the flight-to-safety that had benefited rates over the past two days. A flight to safety happens when investors are nervous about owning risky assets like stocks, but do not want to miss out on earning a return on their funds, so they allocate their money into risk-free government guaranteed U.S Treasury...(read more)

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Protecting Home Loan Consumers Starts with Simplying Disclosures

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Posted To: MND NewsWire

Elizabeth Warren, Special Advisor to the Secretary of the Treasury for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), told a House subcommittee yesterday that " A simple, straightforward and consistent presentation of a credit agreement is the best way to level the playing field between consumers and lenders - and among different types of lenders - and foster honest competition." Warren updated the Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Consumer Credit on the progress of the new bureau which she will be directing but without the title of director. In lengthy testimony she covered the staffing, budget, and outreach already conducted to explain the Bureau to military families, faith-based groups, and state attorneys general. Many people, Warren said, assumed the Bureau would seek to accomplish...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates: Best Ex Barrier Broken. Briefly?

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates improved today as the situation in Japan deteriorated and a feeling of panic poured through global markets, spurring on another flight to safety in risk-averse government bonds. A flight to safety happens when investors are nervous about owning risky assets like stocks, but do not want to miss out on earning a return on their funds, so they allocate their money into risk-free government guaranteed U.S Treasury debt to provide a safe-haven AND an investment return. As benchmark Treasury yields fall on "flight to safety" buyer demand, prices of mortgage-backed securities move higher in unison. This allows lenders to reprice their rate sheets for the better and gives originators an opportunity to offer fence-sitting borrowers lower mortgage rates or more competitive closing costs...(read more)

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