Rate Techs: Teetering on a Directional Shift

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

Headline news and crisis scenarios have been the market's primary directional motivation for most of March. With exception to the Fed's proclamation that our economic recovery may be on "firmer footing", negative events have dominated the news flow. Bond yields and mortgage rates have benefited from a flight to safety as a result. These are just "Big Picture" directional observations though, we can't forget the technical inflection levels that dictated the speed and extent to which bonds rallied over the past month. Investors are now retesting these price/yield pivots to confirm a shift in directional bias. Let's take a look at where we stand at the moment... The April FNCL 4.5 MBS coupon recently topped out near 102-25. If you're wondering about the significance of this price level, you don...(read more)

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