Mortgage Rates: Range Holds. Flight to Safety Needed

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Just like the first three weeks of the month, the last week was all about the range in the primary mortgage market. If you're a first time reader and have no clue what we're talking about... Mortgage rates have barely budged since mid-December. The only real variable in loan pricing scenarios has been the closing costs associated with Best Execution mortgage rates. Otherwise...2011 has been a sideways saunter for fence-sitting rate watchers. We thought that might change last week, but it didn't. Home loan borrowing costs barely budged, again . The rates range did not break. From that perspective, even though we are encouraged about the prospects for a move lower, all we can do is defensively "wait and see" what happens in the month ahead. The comfy confines of the range are still shrinking...(read more)

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The Week Ahead: Jobs Data, Egypt, ISM, Productivity

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Turmoil in Egypt and the broader middle-east continues to weigh on investors. As riots broke out late last week, U.S. equity markets saw their steepest single-day declines in months. This led to a flight to safety in the government bond market and helped mortgage rates improve a few basis points. The flight to safety was however not enough to break the recent MBS trading range. The release of the Employment Situation Report is the main event on the economic calendar in the week ahead. However continued civil unrest in Egypt is expected to stir up commotion in the marketplace and potentially dictate the direction of mortgage in advance of jobs data on Friday morning. After ending an eight week rally last Friday, bond investors will be keeping a close eye on the sentiment of stocks and shifts...(read more)

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The Day Ahead: Advance Q4 GDP Estimate, Consumer Sentiment, QEII Coupon Lift

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

A slim gain pushed the benchmark S&P 500 to its highest level since August 2008 yesterday. On the final day of the week, equities are improved ever so slightly and interest rates are higher as investors await GDP data for the last three months of 2010, as well as consumer sentiment for January. The benchmark 10 year note is -10/32 at 93-11 yielding 3.431%. The FNCL 4.5 is -2/32 at 102-01. S&P 500 futures are up 0.75 at 1296.50 while Dow futures are 10 points higher at 11,954. Year-to-date, the S&P has gained 3.33%. Weighing on the markets is a rating agency warning that the U.S. may lose its triple-A status due to rising debt levels. MND eluded to this headline risk on Tuesday. READ MORE Moody’s Investors Service said it might give the U.S. gilt-edged rating a negative outlook...(read more)

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MBS Bounce as Stocks Fall Following Consumer Sentiment Data

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

Although the 74.2 reading on Consumer Sentiment was slightly higher than consensus estimates of 73.2, the fact that it did not beat the 74.5 December reading seems to be the driving force behind a down trade in stocks and recovery bounce in bond prices. 10yr notes just crossed over yesterday's closing yield levels around 3.39 after trading as high as 3.45 this morning. FNCL 4.5 MBS are at 102-03 and rising. If current levels are maintained, we stand a good chance to see reprices for the better from lenders who were already out with pricing before the data. Remember: the best way to stay on top of the minute to minute changes in the MBS prices that dictate loan pricing is at the MBSonMND Live Dashboard ( LEARN MORE HERE ). Have a question about something you're seeing on the dashboard? Just...(read more)

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MBS MID-DAY: 1/28/2011

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: MBS Commentary

MBSonMND : MBS MID-DAY Open MBSonMND Dashboard FNMA 3.5 95-08 : +0-05 FNMA 4.0 99-01 : +0-04 FNMA 4.5 102-07 : +0-04 FNMA 5.0 104-28 : +0-01 GNMA 3.5 95-31 : +0-05 GNMA 4.0 100-08 : +0-02 GNMA 4.5 103-10 : +0-02 GNMA 5.0 106-01 : -0-01 FHLMC 3.5 95-03 : +0-04 FHLMC 4.0 98-27 : +0-03 FHLMC 4.5 102-00 : +0-01 FHLMC 5.0 104-20 : -0-02 Pricing as of 11:04 AM EST Morning Market Updates A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard . 10:54AM : ALERT: Reprices For The Better Are Probable If Current Levels Hold Check out the most recent MBS Commentary (link below). Bottom line: all that really needs to happen for lenders who priced before 9:30 to reprice for the better would simply be for the market to hold current levels or close to them. 10:19AM...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates: Two Days of Positive Progress! Now What...

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

The word of the month in the primary mortgage market is " RANGE ". <<<---- We wrote that last Friday. On Monday we said a storm was a brewin. "Don't get complacent". Tuesday we took off because nothing happened on TuesDAY. TuesNIGHT was when the action was expected. Nope. TuesNIGHT came and went with little action to report. Wednesday too. So on Thursday we were back to preaching the principles of "THE RANGE" . And then came Friday......................... To sum up what you want to hear in one easy to understand statement, I quote Chris Kopec of Owl Tree Mortgage - "MBS out on the highs of the day....likey likey" Well-said Chris. Well said. Even those who know nothing of MBS can figure out what happened in the mortgage market today. "Likey likey" says it all. MG's gut instincts were...(read more)

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Flight to Safety Rallies Rates. Reprices Reported

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Concurrent with a 1.4% stock sell off and civil unrest abroad, benchmark Treasuries have benefitted from a flight to safety. This has led "rate sheet influential" MBS prices to intraday highs. REPRICES FOR THE BETTER HAVE BEEN REPORTED 10yr TSY note yields moved back to the originator friendly side of the recent range before profit takers and a decline in trading volume put a lid on further positive progress. This slowing of the rally lines up with the same noisy cluster of resistance we've seen repeatedly over the past 5 weeks (RANGE!). Notice the range is consolidating at a quicker pace though (i.e. it's getting narrower over time)... MBS are benefitting from the benchmark rally but are lagging by comparison. FNCL 4.5's continue to struggle to get out of the low side of the recent rangebut...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates: Risks Still Manageable on Day to Day Basis

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

After the "high risk events" of the week reached a crescendo yesterday, today's market movements offered a bit of reprieve for mortgage rate watchers. That reprieve wasn't seen until this afternoon, however, but borrowing costs did improve marginally over yesterday's updated lender offererings. There's always risks involved in floating, but a majority of the week's influential events are now successfully behind us. We think it's safe to down grade the risk advisory meter from high risk to cautious/guarded. That means we're not expecting the recent rates range to be broken as swiftly as might have the case earlier this week. That DOESN'T mean you should not be defensive. Day over day risks are however limited to volatility in closing costs. WHY? The mortgage rate/borrowing cost "range" we keep...(read more)

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GSE Reform: "A Responsible Market for Housing Finance"

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Another party, this time from the progressive side of the debate, has chimed in with its prescription for reforming the nation's housing finance system. This proposal, " A Responsible Market for Housing Finance " , is a product of the Mortgage Finance Working Group sponsored by the Center for American Progress, with the generous support of the Ford Foundation, and the Open Society Institute. The report details the heavy reliance of the housing finance system on the federal government since the collapse of the non-agency mortgage market. We have the knowledge and tools, it says, to create an American housing finance system that, while relying on private capital, will be stable over the ups and down of the economy, equitably serve its stakeholders and promote residential integration, eliminate...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates: High Risk Events Produce Little Drama

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Two high risk events came and went over the last 18 hours. The State of the Union address and the release of the FOMC Statement. Although the market's reaction to these events was not directionally friendly to rate watchers, the process was about as gentle as we could have hoped for. The State Of The Union address and the release of the FOMC Statement were widely expected to shake things up. If you are a short term opportunist, they did just that. Upfront borrowing costs rose today by almost 3/8ths of a point (as a percentage of your loan amount, paid at closing). This intraday volatility is par for the course lately though. If you're a long term opportunist or even a medium termer...you didn't gain or lose much ground in the past 18 hours. The "best execution" conventional 30 year fixed mortgage...(read more)

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New Home Sales Greatly Distorted in December. Standard Error Huge

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development have released New Residential Sales data for December 2010. New Residential Sales data provides statistics on the sales of new privately-owned single-family residential structures in the United States. Data included in the press release are (1) the number of new single-family houses sold; (2) the number of new single-family houses for sale; and (3) the median and average sales prices of new homes sold. A house is considered sold when either a sales contract has been signed or a deposit accepted. Included in our estimates are houses for which a sales contract is signed or deposit accepted before construction has actually started; for instance, houses sold from a model or from plans before any work has started on the footings or...(read more)

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Outlier Consumer Confidence Read Rattles Rates Rally

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Rattle: to upset especially to the point of loss of poise and composure. Disturb. While we can certainly say the bond market lost composure after 10am Consumer Confidence data, it's not an outright defeat. Technical support has come to the rescue. Here is the Reuters Quick Recap... RTRS-US JANUARY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX 60.6 VS DEC REVISED 53.3 (PREVIOUS 52.5) - CONFERENCE BOARD RTRS-US CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX MEDIAN FORECAST FROM REUTERS FOR JANUARY WAS 54.3 RTRS-US CONSUMER PRESENT SITUATION INDEX IN JAN WAS 31.0 VS DEC REVISED 24.9 (PREVIOUS 23.5) RTRS-US CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS INDEX 80.3 IN JAN VS DEC REVISED 72.3 (PREVIOUS 73.6) - CONFERENCE BOARD RTRS-US JOBS HARD-TO-GET INDEX 43.4 IN JAN VS DEC REVISED 46.0 (PREVIOUS 46.8) - CONFERENCE BOARD RTRS-US 1-YEAR CONSUMER INFLATION RATE...(read more)

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Fannie and Freddie Foreclosure Inventory Over 240,000 Properties; Fed Responds to Originator Comp Questions; NMLS Uniform Licensing Forms

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Don't let this happen to you at the next mortgage conference: THOUSANDS PROTEST CORRUPTION Maybe this person works for the Treasury Department, and the spill impacted the plans for Freddie and Fannie - which could be why the plans, which are "required" by the end of January per Dodd-Frank, have now been pushed back until mid-February . " Officials say the delay is needed to accommodate other major policy initiatives, including next month's release of the annual budget and the president's State of the Union address today." Try that excuse when delaying your 4/1 comp plan! It doesn't help that the Treasury has had some personnel turnover, and policy disagreements between Treasury and White House officials. When it does come out, expect two or three proposals for what should replace Fannie and...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates: Storm Brewing. Don't Get Complacent

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

The word of the month in the primary mortgage market is "RANGE". Mortgage rates have barely budged since mid-December. The only real variable in loan pricing scenarios has been the closing costs associated with Best Execution mortgage rates. Otherwise...2011 has been a sideways saunter for consumer borrowing costs. This generally stable interest rate environment has allowed a feeling of complacency to creep into rate watcher outlooks. And while some mortgage rate opportunists have a "ho-hum, I need 4.00% to refinance" attitude and therefore are somewhat apathetic toward rising borrowing costs, there are others who need to lock their loan in the next 30 days. This is the group we caution against becoming overly complacent. Don't let the relative stability fool you.... The comfy confines of the...(read more)

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The Week Ahead: State of the Union, FOMC, Housing Prices, Treasury Auctions

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: MBS Commentary

The week ahead is busy to say the least. President Obama will give the State of the Union Address on Tuesday night. The Federal Reserve will hold a two day FOMC meeting to discuss monetary policy and share an updated outlook on Wednesday. We'll get a trio of housing reports as well as a trifecta of Treasury coupon auctions totaling $99 billion. Scattered in between, the New York Fed will conduct four QEII open market Treasury operations. And rounding out the week ahead, the Q4 earnings season continues with key reports from 3M, Procter & Gamble, Boeing, Caterpillar, Ford, Honeywell, and Johnson & Johnson. So needless to say there is a plethora of news and events that might just serve to provide some directional guidance for the MBS market and mortgage rates, which have been stuck in...(read more)

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Lots of Lender Updates; MERS Leadership Change; Wells on Originator Compensation; Job Openings; Bank of America Legal Fees

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Bank of America spent $1.5 billion on legal fees in the last three months of 2010. Sometimes we have trouble imagining big numbers. In the US, our median household pretax income is about $50,000. If a household were to work for 300,000 years, it would earn $1.5 billion dollars. (300,000 years ago was about the same time that mortgage bankers began walking erect, and using burnt sticks to write HMDA information on cave walls.) There are indeed jobs out there to be had . Merscorp Inc., the parent company of Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems ( MERS ) announced that R.K. Arnold has retired as CEO & president, and Paul Bognanno will take the job on an interim basis. He will lead the search process for a permanent replacement in MERS' Reston, VA office. MERS, as we know, has in its electronic...(read more)

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Why Can't Rates Break the Range? Major Commitment Needed.

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Good Morning. Happy Dataless Friday! I bumped into my Petro man this AM. These are the guys who fuel your furnace with heating oil. I took the opportunity to do a little "research" and asked him how he's been treated by customers lately. He was quick to respond. BAD. He's been getting heckled quite a bit lately apparently. Poor guy. Don't shoot the messenger! Just goes to show you how tight the fiscal situation is on Main Street. The margin squeeze is on. Anyway there's an update on my "misery index". The econ calendar is empty today. Besides earnings releases, the only other notable event on the market's honey do list is a Fed open market operation at 10:15. The Fed's trading desk will lift an estimated $7-9 billion in Treasuries maturing between 2/15/2018 and 11/15/2020. These are "rate sheet...(read more)

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Originator Compensation FAQs; Loan Putbacks Bruise BoA; Foreclosures Pinch PNC Profits; Servicer Watchdogs; Lender Updates

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Pipeline Press

It's Friday, so why not throw in something unrelated to mortgages? Anyone in a really cold climate and even those not, will find this pretty neat: THE MOST FUN YOU CAN HAVE WITH BOILING WATER The Jonas Brothers help lock down the top spot for an affluent neighborhood? AMERICA'S MOST AFFLUENT NEIGHBORHOODS "I went to the butcher shop the other day and I bet him $50 he couldn't reach the meat off the top shelf. He said, 'No, the steaks are too high.'" The stakes/steaks are pretty high when it comes to compensation plans . Companies around the country are spending countless man-hours working with consultants or setting up comp plans on their own. Caliber Funding sent out a survey: HERE IT IS Wells Fargo sent their broker clients a link to a video focused on compensation and anti-steering. "Join...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates: Best Ex Barely Budges. Closing Costs Spike

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Last Friday fence-sitting borrowers had a chance to lock up the most aggressive mortgage rate/closing cost combination we've seen since early December. This might sound exciting but the improvements were modest in the grand scheme of things. Why? Mortgage rates have bounced around a relatively tight range since the end of December. 4.875% has been the sweet spot on conventional 30 year fixed home loans while 4.75% has offered the most sensible note rate/closing cost scenario on FHA 30 year fixed loans. Closing costs have been the only major variable in the decision making process. Don't get me wrong. Intraday volatility has been abundant in the secondary mortgage market, but "Best Execution" has barely budged in the primary market (consumers). Nonetheless, mortgage rates/closing costs were...(read more)

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Adjustable Balance Mortgages: Shared Risk Reduces Strategic Defaults

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Posted To: MND NewsWire

Two university researchers are proposing a new type of mortgage which they contend would reduce the economic incentive to default on loan obligations while not increasing the cost to either the lender or the borrower. The concept of an "adjustable balance mortgage" is presented in a forthcoming article in Real Estate Economics by Brent Ambrose, Smeal Professor of Real Estate and director of the Institute for Real Estate Studies at the Penn State Smeal College of Business, and Richard Buttimer, a professor in the Belk College of Business at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte. Historically, the study says, mortgage default was assumed to result from either a moral failure or cash flow problems that prevented the borrower from repaying his debt. More recent theory is that the preponderance...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates: Closing Costs Rise. Best Execution Steady

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

After worsening sharply on Tuesday, mortgage rates didn't move much yesterday. But better than expected economic data this morning and a weak Treasury auction this afternoon provided a one-two punch that sent borrowing costs to the highest levels of 2011. All 20 days of it. Reprices for the worse were wide spread. Interestingly enough, although closing costs did move higher today, best execution mortgage rates remain unchanged. If your lender has been updating your loan pricing on a daily basis, your closing costs rose by about 0.25% of your loan amount today. This works out to $250 for every $100,000 you borrow. The "best execution" conventional 30 year fixed mortgage rate is 4.875%. Lenders are still offering 4.75% but the upfront permanent buydown costs would take over 10 years to recover...(read more)

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Realtor Influenced Settlement Costs; The Future of Fannie and Freddie; New Mortagee Letters; Wells Fargo Q4 Loan Production

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Some would say that the winning bid for this website domain name represents the change in mortgage lending in the last 5 years: OPTIONARMS And here is one quote that I received recently which also represents what many seem to feel. "I love my job but it's really the industry I dislike right now." Companies in the mortgage industry have been reporting financial results lately. In the mortgage insurance sector, most MI company shares tumbled after MGIC Investment Corp. posted fourth-quarter results far below analysts' expectations. MGIC's shares plummeted 21% in one day after the company reported a loss of 93 cents a share. The largest MI company's llosses on mortgage default claims rose again after trending downward during the two previous quarters, and in fact MGIC has been posting quarterly...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: 1/19/2011

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: MBS Commentary

MBSonMND : MBS RECAP Open MBSonMND Dashboard FNMA 3.5 95-11 : 0-09 FNMA 4.0 99-08 : 0-07 FNMA 4.5 102-12 : 0-05 FNMA 5.0 105-02 : 0-07 GNMA 3.5 96-00 : 0-04 GNMA 4.0 100-13 : 0-08 GNMA 4.5 103-15 : 0-05 GNMA 5.0 106-04 : 0-05 FHLMC 3.5 95-06 : 0-09 FHLMC 4.0 99-03 : 0-07 FHLMC 4.5 102-08 : 0-05 FHLMC 5.0 104-27 : 0-06 Pricing as of 3:58 PM EST Market Updates 3:34PM : Sideways And Calm In After Hours Trade Stocks, bonds, and MBS continue to drift sideways in after hours trading at 1280 in the S&P 3.337 in the 10yr, and 102-14 in FNCL 4.5's. Any lenders who have been hiding in the shadows in terms of reprices today may give it some more consideration this afternoon. 2:55PM : Benchmark 10's Push down into 3.33's as Stocks Slide 3.339 was just reached in 10yr notes, and FNCL 4.5's...(read more)

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Freddie Mac Eliminates Streamline Refi Product; Wells Fargo & U.S. Bank Earnings Recap; Plan B for 2011; Lender Bulletins

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Terrorists are now planting bombs in cans of alphabet soup. If one of them explodes it could spell disaster! Of course, everyone in mortgage banking is hoping that 2011 is not a disaster. Remember - borrowers still borrowed money even when rates were in the high teens. That being said, not only did Freddie Mac recently lower its production estimates for 2011, but the Mortgage Bankers Association (of America) came out with its forecast for 2011: 30yr conforming conventional fixed rates at 5.5% by year end, and $966 billion total single family originations in 2011. WHAT'S YOUR PLAN B? Regarding production volumes, this morning we learned from the MBA what many lock desks could tell us: that apps picked up by 5% last week , with refinancing applications up almost 8%. Purchases dropped about 2...(read more)

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The Range is the Range Until the Range is Broken. Waiting Game Continues in Rates Market

Hot news from AZ Home Help:

Posted To: MBS Commentary

"After failing to confirm a break of the broader 3.27 to 3.56% range, benchmark 10 year TSY yields shot 13bps higher in an aggressive manner this morning, releasing stored energy in an originator unfriendly direction. This has led production MBS coupon prices sharply lower in just a matter of minutes, which [led] to reprices for the worse." That paragraph is from this morning's MBS commentary , with the small exception being that "may lead" was changed to past tense as we did indeed see reprices for the worse. But if lenders didn't get sheets out before the initial high-volume selling this morning, they generally did not reprice as bonds held firm after a strong support bounce near the midpoint of the range. That midpoint was well illustrated even before the bounce was seen in AQ's morning...(read more)

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